On Saturday, Icelanders will vote on whether to reopen negotiations on joining the EU. It is not a vote on membership itself, but after more than a decade of stalled relations with Brussels, it could reopen a European door that has remained closed since 2013.
After applying to join the bloc in 2009 amidst deep financial crisis, accession negotiations were halted by a then Eurosceptic government in 2013. The question returned to the political agenda in 2024 with a pro-EU coalition and shifting realities.
ALDE Party member Viðreisn has spoken about the referendum, saying:
“Let us not forget that much has changed since Iceland last participated in accession negotiations. Security issues are more important, energy issues have taken on a new form, and the importance of the Arctic has increased significantly. Europe itself has changed, and the priorities of the EU have changed as well. The government believes that there is now more room than before to consider Iceland's unique situation.”
That change is particularly visible in the Arctic. The region is becoming increasingly important for security, energy and rare earth minerals, while uncertain transatlantic relations have forced European countries to reconsider how they protect themselves.
Iceland is once again looking towards Europe. With Russia continuing its war against Ukraine and US policy towards Greenland raising fresh questions about the security of the North Atlantic, the assumption that existing alliances will always remain unchanged looks increasingly fragile.
This comes as enlargement has returned to the EU's agenda. After years without a new member, the bloc is now pursuing Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans. A renewed Icelandic bid would add a very different kind of candidate to that picture: a wealthy Nordic country already deeply integrated into the European economy.
That makes Saturday's vote about more than Iceland's relationship with Brussels. It is also a litmus test of whether the EU still has the pull to attract countries that already enjoy many of the benefits of European integration.
The referendum is shaping up to be a close one, as farming and fishing have emerged as voters’ top concerns. With fishing territories crucial to Iceland’s national sovereignty and economic performance, it will be a point of contention.
There is also a practical head start. When negotiations were suspended, 27 of the 33 substantive chapters had already been opened and 11 had been provisionally closed. A new process would therefore build on work that was already done.
Party Vice President and Minister for Finance, Daði Már Kristófersson, argues that the moment is right to reopen the process:
“Right now is the right time to focus on securing Iceland's position for the future. The best way to do that is to start new negotiations with the European Union."
Minister of Justice Þorbjörg Sigríður Gunnlaugsdóttir agreed:
“We have everything to gain and nothing to lose...The next generation will ask why we didn't want to see a deal.”
Saturday's vote will not decide whether Iceland joins the EU. But it may decide whether Iceland is ready to find out. And at a time when Europe is looking north for security, stability and new partners, Brussels will be watching just as closely as Reykjavík.